Data dossier · Payotte — updated July 2026

Will home prices drop? The 2026-2027 housing forecasts, compiled

Payotte predicts nothing: we compile the forecasts PUBLISHED by the organizations whose job it is — each dated, sourced and quoted as-is. Latest compilation: CREA's July 15, 2026 forecast and CMHC's 2026 Outlook.

In brief

According to CREA's quarterly forecast (July 15, 2026), the national average price should edge up: +1.1% in 2026 (to $686,710) then +1.1% in 2027 (to $694,164) — below-inflation gains, with sub-1% declines in Ontario and B.C. offset by gains elsewhere. 2026 sales are expected to dip slightly (−1.4%, to 463,336 transactions) before a +3.7% rebound in 2027. CMHC (2026 Outlook) expects a resale recovery that stays below long-term averages. In other words: neither crash nor boom in the published forecasts — a plateau around $700,000.

Our rule: compile, never predict

A forecast is an expert opinion, not a fact — and they are regularly wrong. This page applies the site-wide rule: no invented figures. Every forecast below belongs to its author, at its date, with its link. When forecasters revise (CREA publishes quarterly), this page follows.

The published forecasts, side by side

Forecaster	Forecast (dated)	2026	2027
CREA	Quarterly forecast — July 15, 2026	Average price: +1.1% → $686,710 · Sales: −1.4% → 463,336	Average price: +1.1% → $694,164 · Sales: +3.7% → 480,567
CMHC	Housing Market Outlook 2026	Resale recovery, but below long-term averages · housing starts slowing · rental affordability improving (high vacancies, slower rents)	Sharper decline in starts expected 2027-2028 · condo construction limited for ~3 years

Quotes and figures copied from the official publications, opened and verified on July 27, 2026. Next expected update: CREA's quarterly forecast of October 16, 2026 (date announced by CREA).

What CREA says, in detail (July 15, 2026)

CREA's big picture is a plateau: "the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark." For 2026, the sales recovery "appears to have taken hold beginning in May," led by Ontario — now the only province forecast to see sales rise in 2026 — while Quebec and the East Coast face "the dual headwinds of the sharp reduction in population growth and historic supply shortages."

On prices: sub-1% declines in B.C. and Ontario, offset by slowing growth elsewhere. Two standouts: Alberta, where "prices turned a corner and resumed rising in the second quarter," and Newfoundland and Labrador, "Canada's last remaining province in full-on seller's market mode" — both visible city by city in our provincial price dossiers.

For 2027: +3.7% sales, price gains "held to below inflation pretty much across the board" — and CREA notes the number could be stronger "if external factors don't once again disrupt the spring market for a fourth straight year."

What CMHC says (2026 Outlook)

CMHC looks wider than resale: housing starts will keep slowing in 2026, with "a more significant decline expected in 2027-2028," and weak condo presales "will limit new condominium construction over the next 3 years" — an important supply signal for the end of the decade. Good news for renters: "rental market affordability will continue to improve," driven by high vacancies and slower rent growth — consistent with our CMHC rents dossier.

How to read a forecast (without getting played)

Three reflexes. 1. Check the date: an April forecast revised in July is no longer the forecast. 2. National hides regional: "+1.1% national" = declines in Ontario/B.C. AND gains in Saskatchewan — your local market (our price dossiers) matters more than the Canadian average. 3. The policy rate is the master variable: every Bank of Canada decision can force all these forecasts to be revised — the announcement calendar is in our policy-rate dossier.

Frequently asked questions

Will house prices drop in Canada?

What does CREA forecast for 2027?

Sales up 3.7% (to 480,567 transactions) and a national average price up 1.1% (to $694,164) — gains "held to below inflation pretty much across the board." It would be the seventh consecutive year the national average hovers near $700,000 (CREA forecast of July 15, 2026, revised quarterly).

Which province is forecast to do best?

Per CREA (July 2026): Ontario is the only province with 2026 sales expected to rise; on prices, Alberta "turned a corner" in Q2 and Newfoundland and Labrador remains "the last remaining province in full-on seller's market mode." Conversely, Quebec and the East Coast are slowing faster than expected (demographics + supply).

Are these forecasts reliable?

They are the best available — and they are regularly wrong, which is why CREA revises quarterly. Payotte does not endorse them: we compile them dated and sourced so you can see who forecasts what, and we update the page at each revision (next: October 16, 2026).

Should I wait for a drop before buying?

The published forecasts announce neither crash nor boom: a plateau around $700,000 nationally, with big regional gaps. The real question is local (your market — our price dossiers) and personal (your capacity — see "What income do you need to buy?"). A verified professional in your sector beats a national average.

Sources (opened and verified July 27, 2026)

YOUR sector's market matters more than the national average

Payotte publishes a single verified expert per sector, and dated market data city by city — never an in-house estimate.

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