Will home prices drop? The 2026-2027 housing forecasts, compiled

Our rule: compile, never predict

A forecast is an expert opinion, not a fact — and they are regularly wrong. This page applies the site-wide rule: no invented figures. Every forecast below belongs to its author, at its date, with its link. When forecasters revise (CREA publishes quarterly), this page follows.

The published forecasts, side by side

Figures copied from the official publications: CREA forecast opened and verified on November 4, 2026, CMHC update verified on November 4, 2026. * CMHC publishes levels, not changes: the percentages in brackets are Payotte's calculation (2026 against the 2025 actuals CMHC publishes: $679,543, 470,314 sales). CREA and CMHC are separate forecasts made at different dates: do not mix them. Next CREA forecast: mid-January 2027 (date announced by CREA).

Are housing prices dropping in Canada?

Not nationally, but in some cities, yes: of 69 markets Payotte tracks with a published annual change (data through October 2026), 31 are down year over year and 34 up. For 2026, CREA forecasts +0.2% nationally, −3% in Ontario and −0.8% in British Columbia (forecast of October 16, 2026).

City-by-city detail is in our price dossiers — Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, Alberta. To know what the trend means for a specific sale or purchase, a real estate broker in Toronto or real estate broker in Vancouver reads the comparable sales in your area.

Will house prices go down in 2027?

Not according to CREA: the national average price is forecast to rise 1.2% in 2027, to $689,909, with gains below 2% everywhere except Newfoundland and Labrador (+3.1%) and Saskatchewan (+2.5%); sales would rebound 4.4% (forecast of October 16, 2026).

What does CMHC forecast for house prices?

According to CMHC's summer update (July 22, 2026, baseline), the Canadian average MLS price would be $675,200 in 2026, against $679,543 in 2025 (−0.6%, Payotte's calculation), then $698,900 in 2027 and $717,300 in 2028. MLS sales: 457,200 in 2026. Housing starts: 241,400 in 2026, 223,400 in 2027, 211,900 in 2028.

Do CMHC and CREA agree?

Broadly, yes: neither crash nor boom. In detail, no: for 2026, CREA (October 16, 2026) forecasts +0.2% nationally ($681,681), CMHC (July 22, 2026) a slight decline ($675,200, −0.6% as calculated by Payotte). They are two separate forecasts, published three months apart.

What CREA says, in detail (October 16, 2026)

CREA revised sales down: some 444,530 properties would trade hands in 2026, 5.2% fewer than in 2025. The stated reason: "Combined with a notably more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada, fixed mortgage rates have jumped even higher, and markets are now pricing in approximately 100 basis points of rate hikes by this time next year." The revision is spread across all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador, where the market is still very active.

On prices: "The national average home price is forecast to edge higher by just 0.2% on an annual basis to $681,681 in 2026, slightly lower but largely unchanged from CREA’s July forecast." "The national figure in 2026 is the result of a decline of 0.8% in British Columbia, along with a larger 3% dip in Ontario." The largest 2026 gains are expected in Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.7%) and Saskatchewan (+5%). For 2027, CREA forecasts +1.2% nationally and sales up 4.4%, assuming slow but positive economic growth, a return to higher population growth and more certainty about the rate path.

The big picture is unchanged: "This forecast would mark the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark."

What CMHC says (update of July 22, 2026)

In July, CMHC cut its winter forecast: the 2026 average MLS price went from $698,000 to $675,200, sales from 489,000 to 457,200, housing starts from 247,000 to 241,400. Its call: "Prices are expected to decline through 2026 and then grow only modestly afterward." — $698,900 in 2027 (+3.5%, Payotte's calculation) and $717,300 in 2028 (+2.6%). Starts would keep falling, to 211,900 in 2028. By region: British Columbia and Ontario would stay at historically weak sales levels, the Prairies would lead price growth, and Quebec would keep sales high with modest price gains.

In its winter Outlook (data as of January 15, 2026), CMHC already looked wider than resale: housing starts will keep slowing in 2026, with "a more significant decline expected in 2027-2028," and weak condo presales "will limit new condominium construction over the next 3 years" — an important supply signal for the end of the decade. Good news for renters: "rental market affordability will continue to improve," driven by high vacancies and slower rent growth — consistent with our CMHC rents dossier.

How to read a forecast (without getting played)

Three reflexes. 1. Check the date: the July forecast (+1.1% for 2026) is no longer the forecast — October's says +0.2%. 2. National hides regional: "+0.2% national" = −3% in Ontario AND +5% in Saskatchewan — your local market (our price dossiers) matters more than the Canadian average. 3. The policy rate is the master variable: it is what forced the October revision — the announcement calendar is in our policy-rate dossier.

Frequently asked questions

Sources (CREA forecast verified November 4, 2026)

• CREA — Quarterly Forecasts (October 16, 2026; next: mid-January 2027)
• CMHC — Housing Market Outlook 2026, summer update (July 22, 2026)
• CMHC — Housing Market Outlook 2026 (data as of January 15, 2026)