The Selic and mortgage rates in Brazil, 2026

The Selic in 2026

The Selic target is the Copom’s policy rate. The Central Bank’s decision history, read on 15 October 2026, shows the 2026 sequence:

Four consecutive reductions of 0.25 percentage point took the target from 14.75% to 13.75%, one point in total. The Central Bank’s daily series 432 carries the target forward with dates later than today’s, so a “latest date” in that series is not a decision date; use the decision history for that.

What the Central Bank reports on housing loans

The three monthly series cover the average rate of new operations, weighted by amount, of credit regulated by the National Monetary Council or tied to budget resources (“recursos direcionados”). For the last months read:

The market-rate figure also stood at 14.31% in June 2026. Between June and August 2026 the market-rate average moved from 14.31% to 14.24%, a fall of 0.07 percentage point, while the Selic target went from 14.50% (after meeting 278) to 14.00% (meeting 280, 5 August). This is an observation, not a measured link: the series are averages of contracts signed, weighted by volume, and Payotte did not read an official analysis of how the Selic feeds into housing-loan rates. Treat any claim that “a Selic cut lowers your mortgage rate by X” as unsupported.

The 12% SFH cap

Inside the SFH, the effective cost to the borrower is capped at 12% a year by Resolução CMN 4.676, article 13, excluding insurance and some fees (SFH versus SFI). The market-rate average of 14.24% is above 12%. Payotte did not find, in the texts read, a statement of which part of the market-rate series is inside or outside the SFH, so the series cannot be used to say how many SFH loans are near the cap.

How to use these figures

• As a reference, not a quote. Lenders set their own rates, and the rate offered to you depends on the lender’s assessment.
• With the CET. The rate is only one component; ask for the total effective cost (CET).
• In a calculation. The reference rates of Payotte’s mortgage calculator come from the same series. To convert 11.28% to a monthly rate: (1 + 11.28%)^(1/12) − 1 = 0.8946% a month (SAC versus Price, mortgage calculator). On a R$ 500,000 loan over 360 months under the Price formula this gives an instalment of about R$ 4,662, to illustrate the arithmetic.
• For a later comparison. If a lower rate becomes available after you sign, the portability rules let you ask another lender for a competing proposal (mortgage portability).

Rules still to take effect

Resolução CMN 5.255, published on 10 October 2025, reorganises how savings deposits must be directed to housing credit. Part applied from 1 January 2026; the new allocation rules and the new list of SFH operations apply from 1 January 2027 and are not in force on 15 October 2026. The Central Bank is to assess results by the end of 2026. Payotte makes no forecast of their effect on rates.

Which professional to consult

A mortgage lender or authorised correspondent can give a written proposal with the rate and CET (mortgage lender). For the wider mechanics of a Brazilian home loan, see how mortgages work.