Mexico house prices: what the SHF index measures

What the index measures

According to SHF’s methodology note, the index is “un indicador que mide los cambios en la valoración económica de las propiedades inmuebles”. It is built from appraisals (the regression in the note uses “el número de avalúos” as its sample), using hedonic models applied “sobre un stock de inmuebles fijo”, which is to say a statistical method that removes the effect of a home’s features (floor area, bathrooms, parking, age, location) so that prices are compared for a home of constant quality. The chain is a Laspeyres-type index with 2017 as the base year (average 2017 = 100). The press release headline describes it as the value of homes “adquiridas a través de un crédito hipotecario”.

Three consequences for a reader:

• It covers homes bought with mortgage credit and appraised for that purpose. By that definition, homes bought without a mortgage are outside its scope.
• An appraisal is an estimate, not a recorded price. It can differ from what buyer and seller agree.
• A quality-adjusted index follows the price of a “same” home, not the average price of homes that happened to sell. That is why the index and the mean appraisal value (below) are different things.

The Q2 2026 results

SHF’s release of 10 August 2026 (press bulletin 05/2026) says:

For the same period, the release gives the inflation measured by the national consumer price index at 3.4 % (annual, June 2026) and the average mortgage rate reported by Banxico for the second quarter at 11.42 %. These are the release’s own figures.

The release lists first-half increases for eight metropolitan areas: Guadalajara 11.1 %, Tijuana 9.7 %, Puebla-Tlaxcala 8.5 %, Monterrey 8.3 %, León 7.9 %, Querétaro 5.6 %, Toluca 5.1 % and Valle de México 4.6 %. It adds that 17 states exceeded the national variation and 15 fell below it.

Three places, three numbers

The SHF PDF gives the index level by state and the appraisal distribution in pesos. The table uses those published figures. The “year-on-year” column is Payotte’s own calculation from the published index levels for Q2 2026 and Q2 2025, not a figure printed by SHF.

The index level and the peso figures do not rank states in the same order. Mexico City has the lowest rise of these four and the highest peso values. The index is quality-adjusted and the peso values are raw appraisals, so the two columns answer different questions.

Limits to keep in mind

1. Not a sale price. The mean and median are of appraisal values for mortgaged homes.
2. Preliminary figures. The PDF’s tables are marked “Cifras preliminares sujetas a revisión”, and later releases can revise them.
3. Real or nominal? The tables carry a note saying the index is “en términos reales” because it is a constant-quality, fixed-weight index, while the release compares the 7.3 % to an inflation rate of 3.4 %. The two documents do not make clear whether 7.3 % is already net of inflation. Until SHF clarifies, treat it as the published figure and do not add or subtract inflation.
4. Coverage by city. Many cities have an index only at state level.
5. Licence. The pages carry the general gob.mx terms of use. This guide quotes a few figures with the source and date, and does not reproduce the tables.

Where it fits in a purchase

An appraisal also drives other numbers in a transaction: the loan amount in a mortgage, the base for taxes in some places, and the threshold in the deed rules. See property appraisal (avalúo) and cadastral value.

Which professional to consult

• An appraiser (perito valuador) can explain the appraised value of a particular home.
• A real estate agent can discuss asking and closing prices in a neighbourhood. See the appraiser profession page.